Transition to Green Power: Challenges and Capabilities for Wholesale Suppliers

The global energy transition is accelerating, with renewables now providing a record share of global electricity and fossil fuel generation declining for the first time outside of a recession. This shift is fundamentally transforming the operational and commercial realities for power wholesalers and trading organizations. As the share of wind, solar, and distributed energy resources grows, wholesale suppliers must navigate a landscape defined by volatility, complexity, and opportunity. Success in this new era demands a reimagining of capabilities, processes, and technology.

The Green Power Ecosystem: New Dynamics, New Demands

The modern green power ecosystem is characterized by a diverse mix of dispatchable (traditional) and non-dispatchable (renewable) energy sources. Weather-dependent renewables, such as wind and solar, now play a central role, introducing new challenges in forecasting, balancing, and risk management. Battery energy storage systems (BESS) and other advanced storage solutions are emerging as critical tools for grid flexibility, while consumers are increasingly becoming prosumers—feeding surplus power back into the grid and reshaping demand patterns.

Wholesale suppliers sit at the nexus of this ecosystem, connecting generators, grid operators, markets, and end consumers. Their responsibilities include:

Supplying generated power to consumers
Trading in the market to balance supply and demand
Hedging volume and price risk, especially given the inherent uncertainty of renewable generation
Managing Guarantees of Origin (GoOs) and other renewable certificates

Key Challenges for Wholesale Suppliers in the Green Transition

The rapid growth of renewables and distributed energy resources introduces several operational and commercial challenges:

1. Forecasting Renewable Generation and Demand

Intermittency and Uncertainty: Renewable output fluctuates with weather and time of day, making accurate forecasting essential for balancing supply and demand.
Data Integration: Effective forecasting requires combining asset performance data, weather forecasts, grid signals, and real-time metered data.
Curtailment Prediction: Suppliers must anticipate and manage curtailments due to grid constraints, optimizing asset utilization and minimizing lost production.

2. Managing Guarantees of Origin and Certificates

Complex Inventories: The proliferation of GoOs and renewable certificates demands robust systems for tracking, transferring, and monetizing these assets across markets and jurisdictions.
Regulatory Compliance: Suppliers must ensure certificates are properly matched to physical supply and meet evolving regulatory requirements for green power claims.

3. Optimizing Battery Storage and Flexible Assets

Real-Time Optimization: Battery storage systems must be dynamically managed to maximize value from arbitrage, ancillary services, and congestion management.
Integration with Trading: Storage optimization must be tightly linked to market trading activities, enabling rapid response to price signals and grid needs.

4. Automating Regulatory Compliance

Evolving Obligations: Regulatory frameworks for green power are rapidly changing, with new requirements for reporting, traceability, and sustainability disclosures.
Automation and Auditability: Automated, auditable processes are essential to minimize compliance risk and reduce manual effort.

5. Portfolio Monetization and Risk Management

Commercial Viability: Suppliers must monetize their green portfolios through effective trading, hedging, and contract management, ensuring the financial sustainability of renewable assets.
Complex Contractual Structures: The rise of Corporate Power Purchase Agreements (CPPAs) and bespoke contracts introduces new layers of complexity in lifecycle management and optimization.

Required Capabilities for the Green Power Era

To address these challenges, wholesale suppliers must develop and enhance a range of business and technical capabilities:

Advanced Forecasting: Integrate asset, weather, and market data to improve short-term and intra-day forecasts for both generation and demand.
Portfolio Optimization: Combine data from diverse assets, PPAs, grid signals, and market positions to optimize trading and asset utilization in real time.
Certificate Management: Centralize and automate the tracking, transfer, and settlement of GoOs and renewable certificates, ensuring compliance and maximizing value.
Battery and Asset Optimization: Deploy real-time optimization models for storage and flexible assets, enabling participation in multiple value streams (arbitrage, ancillary services, congestion management).
Automated Regulatory Reporting: Implement systems that automate compliance monitoring, reporting, and audit trails for green power obligations.
Contract and Risk Management: Model complex contractual clauses, manage exposures, and automate settlement processes for PPAs, CPPAs, and other agreements.
Digitalization of IT & OT: Securely connect operational technology (OT) and information technology (IT) systems to enable real-time data acquisition and decision support from distributed sites.

A Practical Roadmap for Wholesale Suppliers

Publicis Sapient’s experience with leading energy organizations highlights a four-step approach to building these capabilities:

Business Strategy and Model: Define the right market areas, instruments, and processes to accelerate onboarding of new green assets and contracts.
Assess & Build Capability: Identify pain points in risk and valuation methods, address gaps in intra-day trading and optimization, and enhance forecasting accuracy.
Build Data and Tech Foundation: Integrate near-real-time data feeds, select scalable technology stacks, and deploy tools that support decision-makers across the business.
Combine CX with AI Capability: Simplify complex data for users, automate routine actions, and accelerate time-to-market for new enhancements and solutions.

Real-World Impact: Case Study

A global energy company, following a major acquisition of wind and solar assets, partnered with Publicis Sapient to integrate commercial optimization activities into its global supply and trading business. The result was a scalable, standardized platform capable of supporting rapid portfolio growth, with:

Unified systems and processes across regions
Enhanced data integration and migration strategies
Prioritized, phased implementation aligned with business needs
Improved operational efficiency and readiness for future expansion

Conclusion: Thriving in the Green Power Transition

The transition to green power is reshaping every aspect of the wholesale energy business. By investing in advanced forecasting, certificate management, battery optimization, and automated compliance, wholesale suppliers can not only manage the risks of renewables but also unlock new sources of value. The winners in this new era will be those who embrace digital transformation, break down silos, and build agile, data-driven organizations ready to lead the energy transition.

Ready to accelerate your green power journey? Connect with Publicis Sapient to discover how we can help you modernize your trading, risk, and operational capabilities for the future of energy.