Digital grocery has a growth story.
But for most grocers, the harder question is not how to generate demand. It is how to meet rising expectations for speed and convenience without giving away margin in the process.
That is the real challenge behind competing with Amazon. Amazon has helped reset the market around same-day and next-day fulfillment, flexible delivery options and low-friction digital experiences. It has also shown the advantage of operating with real-time visibility across supply chain and fulfillment. For traditional grocers, that means digital grocery can no longer be treated as a side channel or a marketing problem. It is an operational and data problem first.
The economics are unforgiving. In store, the customer does the shopping. Online, the grocer absorbs the cost of picking, packing and fulfillment. Add perishable inventory, substitutions, narrow delivery windows and expensive last-mile logistics, and digital growth can quickly become margin dilution. As online grocery has moved from a niche service to a meaningful share of sales in many markets, these pressures have become impossible to ignore.
The good news is that profitability is not out of reach. Grocers that improve digital economics tend to focus on a clear set of operating levers.
- First, they make deliberate choices about fulfillment models. Home delivery may win on convenience, but it is often the most expensive option. Click-and-collect and curbside pickup can reduce last-mile costs while still giving customers speed and flexibility. Many grocers are finding that the smartest path is not to force a single model, but to shape demand across multiple options. That may mean incentivizing pickup, reserving premium delivery windows for customers willing to pay for certainty or using third-party partners to flex capacity only when demand spikes.
- Second, they improve picking efficiency. Poor picking economics can destroy profitability long before an order reaches the customer. Leading grocers use better order management, real-time inventory visibility and smarter routing to increase pick rates and reduce errors. Publicis Sapient has helped one of the world’s top retailers improve e-commerce order picking rates by 35 percent, while also enabling expanded delivery slots and better pickup experiences. Those kinds of gains matter because every minute removed from the picking process improves both cost-to-serve and customer satisfaction.
- Third, they modernize forecasting and available-to-promise capabilities. One of the biggest sources of digital friction is offering products that cannot actually be fulfilled. Without robust available-to-promise logic, grocers risk disappointing customers with missing items, substitutions and delayed orders. Better forecasting changes that. By combining current inventory, inbound supply, committed demand and signals such as booked slots, reorder behavior or items sitting in carts, grocers can make far better decisions about what to promise, where to allocate stock and how to protect service levels. Frequent inventory refreshes across digital channels help ensure customers see what is realistically available for their chosen slot.
- Fourth, they get smarter about substitutions. Substitutions are often treated as a necessary workaround, but they can be a hidden source of churn and margin pressure. Generic rules can frustrate customers, especially when replacement items do not match their preferences or drive up basket cost in the wrong way. More intelligent substitution logic, informed by customer behavior and preferences, can improve acceptance rates and reduce dissatisfaction. In some cases, limiting substitutions on problematic SKUs can actually improve data quality and forecasting performance over time.
- Fifth, they treat shelf life management as a strategic capability. Freshness is one of the most important predictors of loyalty in online grocery. Customers who would carefully choose the longest-dated item in store will not tolerate receiving produce or dairy with limited shelf life at home. Better shelf-life management means more disciplined inventory handling, stronger FIFO practices, improved storage design, tighter inbound scheduling and quality checks as a final line of defense before delivery or pickup. These operational changes do more than reduce refunds. They protect trust, reduce waste and improve the perceived value of the digital offer.
- Sixth, they optimize the last mile rather than simply subsidizing it. Last-mile delivery is often the largest cost line in digital grocery. But not every order needs the same service level. Route optimization, better van and batch scheduling, and flexible delivery partnerships can help grocers match capacity to demand more precisely. Publicis Sapient has helped retailers apply machine learning to delivery scheduling and route allocation, improving delivery efficiency while giving operators more control over dwell time or drop density depending on the day’s conditions. That kind of flexibility is essential when margins are tight and customer expectations are rising.
- Seventh, they adopt more flexible fulfillment architectures. Store picking alone may work at lower volumes, but it becomes difficult to scale economically as digital demand grows. This is where micro-fulfillment, dark-store models and hub-and-spoke networks come into play. Automation can improve picking speed and accuracy. Dedicated fulfillment space can reduce conflict between store shoppers and online operations. Third-party partnerships can provide surge capacity without overcommitting fixed cost. The right answer will differ by market, density and order profile, but the principle is consistent: fulfillment should be designed as a portfolio, not a one-size-fits-all model.
None of this works without the right technology foundation. Many grocers still operate with monolithic systems, fragmented data and limited visibility across inventory, orders and fulfillment. That makes it difficult to respond to changing demand, optimize slots dynamically or coordinate across stores, warehouses and delivery partners. Modern, cloud-based and event-driven architecture enables a different model: real-time data sharing, flexible fulfillment decisions, stronger available-to-promise logic and more effective use of AI across planning and execution. It also helps commercial, operational and technology teams align around shared metrics rather than working through costly silos and workarounds.
This is where digital grocery leaders separate themselves. They do not see digital as a channel that must be supported at any cost. They treat it as a business that must be engineered for profitability. They connect customer promise to operational reality. They use data not just to market better, but to forecast better, pick better, substitute better and deliver better.
Publicis Sapient has helped grocers scale capacity at speed, modernize order management, improve picking and delivery performance and build the flexible digital architecture needed for long-term growth. In one rapid-response effort, we helped a major UK grocer double online order capacity in less than a week to handle nearly 1 million online requests and 1.2 million delivery slots. In longer-term transformation programs, we have helped global grocery leaders expand internationally, optimize supply chain operations and create the engineering and data foundations required to keep evolving.
The path to profitable digital grocery is not about matching Amazon move for move. It is about understanding where convenience creates value, where it destroys margin and how smarter operational choices can improve both. For grocers that get this right, digital growth becomes more than a demand story. It becomes a durable advantage built on better data, better fulfillment and better economics.